Saginaw sits in a cold-climate band with real winter severity, and that matters here in a specific way: steel track contracts in deep cold, and any bracket that's already a little loose - from age, from a house settling, from decades of vibration - has less margin before it lets go. A door that's tracked fine for years can start binding the first hard freeze after a bracket finally works loose.
The other piece is the housing stock. With most homes across this service area dating from 1952 through 1994 and a lot of construction concentrated in the 1960s and 70s, we're dealing with track and bracket hardware that in many cases has never been swapped since the house was built. Fasteners back out of framing over fifty-plus years. Track that was fine for the original door sometimes isn't matched well to a heavier insulated replacement door installed later - an extra strain on brackets that were sized for something lighter. Add a hard impact, a kid's bike, a car bumper tap, or just an opener forcing a door that's already binding, and that's usually the day the door comes off the rail.